Americans expecting bigger tax refunds from Trump this year will likely spend them on gas

The business landscape continues to evolve rapidly, and staying competitive requires both awareness and the right operational infrastructure. This article explores Americans expecting bigger tax refunds from Trump this year will likely spend them on gas and what it means for solo operators, small teams, and growing businesses in 2025.

Spiking gas prices are expected to eat up tax refunds in 2026. The U.S. economy was supposed to start the year with a bang, fueled by an unusually large jump in tax refunds from President Donald Trump’s tax cut legislation. Yet spiking gas prices are on track to eat up those refunds, leaving most Americans with little extra to spend.“Next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time,” Trump said in a prime-time speech in December that was intended to address voters’ concerns about the economy and stubbornly high prices.But that was before the Iran war, which began Feb. 28. Oil and gas prices have soared since then, with the nationwide average price of gas reaching $3.94 Sunday, up more than a dollar from just a month earlier.Gas prices are likely to remain elevated for some time, even if the war ends soon, because shipping and production have been disrupted and will take time to recover. Economists now expect slower growth this spring and for the year as a whole, as dollars that are spent on gas are less likely to be used for restaurant meals, new clothes, or entertainment.Lower and middle-income households are likely to be hit particularly hard, because they receive lower refunds, while spending a greater proportion of their earnings on gas.“The energy shock is to going to hit those who have the least cushion,” said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy at the left-leaning Groundwork Collaborative and a former economist in the Biden White House. “And it doesn’t look like those tax refunds are going to be here to save them.”Neale Mahoney, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, calculates that gas prices could peak in May at $4.36 a gallon, based on oil price forecasts by Goldman Sachs, followed by slow declines for the rest of the year. The notion that gas prices decline much more slowly than they rise is so ingrained among economists that they refer to it as the “rocket and feathers” phenomenon.In that scenario, the average household would pay $740 more in gas this year, nearly equal to the $748 increase in refunds that the Tax Foundation has estimated the average household will receive.Through March 6, refunds have risen by much less than that, according to IRS data: They have averaged $3,676, up $352 from $3,324 in 2025. Still, average refunds could rise as more complex returns are filed.Other estimates show similar impacts. Economists at Oxford Economics, a consulting firm, estimate that if gas prices average $3.70 a gallon all year, it will cost consumers about $70 billion — more than the $60 billion in increased tax refunds.The gas price spike comes with many consumers already in a precarious position, particularly compared to 2022, when gas prices also soared because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At that time, many households still had fattened bank accounts from pandemic-era stimulus payments and companies were hiring rapidly and sharply lifting pay to attract workers.Now, hiring is nearly at a standstill and Americans’ saving rate has steadily fallen in the past few years as many households borrow more to sustain their spending.“When you start looking across the perspective from a consumer side, you’re seeing people who have maxed out their credit cards, are using ‘buy now, pay later’ to purchase their groceries,” said Julie Margetta Morgan, president of The Century Foundation, a think tank. “They’re making it work for now, but that can fall apart quite quickly.”The impact will likely worsen the “K-shaped” narrative around the U.S. economy, analysts said, in which higher income households have fared better than lower-income households. The bottom 10% of earners spend nearly 4% of their incomes on gasoline, Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates, while the top 10% spend just 1.5%.For now, most analysts still expect the U.S. economy to expand this year, even if more slowly, given the gas price shock. Higher gas prices will likely worsen inflation in the short run, but over time weaker spending will also slow growth.American consumers and businesses have repeatedly shaken off shocks since the pandemic — soaring inflation, rising interest rates, tariffs — and continued to spend, defying concerns that the economy would tip into recession. Many economists note that the proportion of their incomes that Americans spend on gas and other energy has fallen significantly compared with a decade ago.Data from the Bank of America Institute, released Friday, showed that spending on gas on the bank’s credit and debit cards shot 14.4% higher in the week ended March 14 compared with a year ago. Before the war, such spending was running 5% below the previous year, a benefit to consumers.Spending on discretionary items — restaurant meals, electronics, and travel — is still growing, the institute said, evidence of consumer resilience. But there is little sign it is accelerating, as many economists had hoped.“The longer these gasoline prices persist, the more that will gradually sap consumer discretionary spending,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the institute.Other analysts expect growth will slow because of the war. Bernard Yaros and Michael Pearce, economists at Oxford Economics, forecast that the U.S. economy will grow just 1.9% this year, down from an earlier estimate of 2.5%.“We had anticipated a lift in spending from a bumper tax refund season,” they wrote, “but the rise in gasoline prices, if sustained, would more than offset that boost.”

Why This Matters for Small Business Operators

Business owners managing operations with fragmented tools — separate CRM, invoicing, HR, and analytics platforms — are increasingly disadvantaged. The operational overhead of switching between dashboards, reconciling data, and maintaining multiple subscriptions compounds quickly. Teams now spend an average of 15+ hours per week on tool management that adds zero revenue.

The businesses growing fastest in 2025 are those that have consolidated their operational stack onto a single modular platform. This isn't just about cost savings — it's about decision speed. When your CRM shares data with your invoicing module, which connects to payroll and HR, every business decision is faster and more informed.

The Fragmentation Problem

Most SMBs today use 6-10 separate software tools to run their operations. Each tool has its own pricing model, login, data format, and API quirks. The result is a web of integrations that breaks regularly, data that never fully syncs, and a finance team that spends more time reconciling spreadsheets than analysing trends.

• Average SMB spends $1,200–$3,600/year on overlapping software subscriptions
• 43% of small business owners report data inconsistency across their tools as a top operational challenge
• Integration maintenance consumes an estimated 20% of developer time at companies with custom stacks

What an Integrated Business OS Changes

Platforms like Mewayz approach this differently. Rather than offering one monolithic tool, a modular business OS provides 208 independently deployable business modules that share a single database and unified permissions model. You activate what you need — CRM, invoicing, booking, payroll, link-in-bio, fleet management — and they work together natively from day one.

"The best business software isn't the most feature-rich — it's the one where all your data lives in one place and your team actually uses it every day."

This architecture means a freelancer can start with link-in-bio and invoicing for free, and a growing team can activate HR, payroll, and analytics without migrating to a new system or re-training staff.

Practical Steps to Consolidate Your Stack

1. Audit your current tools: List every subscription, its monthly cost, and the specific problem it solves.
2. Identify redundancy: Most teams have 2-3 tools solving overlapping problems — these are your first consolidation targets.
3. Prioritise integration points: Focus on tools that need to share data most frequently — CRM ↔ invoicing ↔ payments is the most common pain point.
4. Start with a free tier: Platforms that offer a genuine free tier let you test integration without commitment. Mewayz's free tier includes CRM, invoicing, and link-in-bio with no time limit.
5. Migrate incrementally: Move one module at a time, validate the data, then proceed to the next.

The White-Label Opportunity for Agencies

For digital agencies and platform businesses, there's a compelling additional angle: offering clients a fully branded operational platform rather than recommending a patchwork of third-party tools. A white-label business OS creates a recurring revenue stream and dramatically increases client retention — agencies that offer software retain clients 3× longer than those that only provide services.

Looking Ahead

The businesses that consolidate onto unified, modular platforms over the next 12-24 months will have a structural cost and speed advantage over those still running fragmented tool stacks. The technology exists, pricing has democratised, and migration paths are clearer than ever.

If you're evaluating your options, Mewayz offers a free forever tier with no credit card required — the lowest-friction way to experience what a unified business OS feels like in practice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why This Matters for Small Business Operators

Business owners managing operations with fragmented tools — separate CRM, invoicing, HR, and analytics platforms — are increasingly disadvantaged. The operational overhead of switching between dashboards, reconciling data, and maintaining multiple subscriptions compounds quickly. Teams now spend an average of 15+ hours per week on tool management that adds zero revenue.

The Fragmentation Problem

Most SMBs today use 6-10 separate software tools to run their operations. Each tool has its own pricing model, login, data format, and API quirks. The result is a web of integrations that breaks regularly, data that never fully syncs, and a finance team that spends more time reconciling spreadsheets than analysing trends.

What an Integrated Business OS Changes

Platforms like Mewayz approach this differently. Rather than offering one monolithic tool, a modular business OS provides 208 independently deployable business modules that share a single database and unified permissions model. You activate what you need — CRM, invoicing, booking, payroll, link-in-bio, fleet management — and they work together natively from day one.

Practical Steps to Consolidate Your Stack Audit your current tools: List every subscription, its monthly cost, and the specific problem it solves. Identify redundancy: Most teams have 2-3 tools solving overlapping problems — these are your first consolidation targets. Prioritise integration points: Focus on tools that need to share data most frequently — CRM ↔ invoicing ↔ payments is the most common pain point. Start with a free tier: Platforms that offer a genuine free tier let you test integration without commitment. Mewayz's free tier includes CRM, invoicing, and link-in-bio with no time limit. Migrate incrementally: Move one module at a time, validate the data, then proceed to the next. The White-Label Opportunity for Agencies

For digital agencies and platform businesses, there's a compelling additional angle: offering clients a fully branded operational platform rather than recommending a patchwork of third-party tools. A white-label business OS creates a recurring revenue stream and dramatically increases client retention — agencies that offer software retain clients 3× longer than those that only provide services.

Looking Ahead

The businesses that consolidate onto unified, modular platforms over the next 12-24 months will have a structural cost and speed advantage over those still running fragmented tool stacks. The technology exists, pricing has democratised, and migration paths are clearer than ever.